REAL CREATIVE · the property's own ad · panel reactions are modeled · a demonstration of the creative pre-flight format
CREATIVE PRE-FLIGHT TEST · audiencepassport.com · companion to Passport AP-26-0002, persona panel

thebackcut.com

Creative under test: Own Meta creative: “Your competitor books $5K jobs...” (competitor envy + lead magnet). 69% weighted, vs 79% loss-story and 73% legacy frame on the same panel.

MODELEDSYNTHETIC
PANEL
2026-07-13
Meta/Instagram ad
lead_gen
6 archetypes · view the passport
2026-07-13
01 · The creative under test
The artifact the panel reacted to

The creative, as served on Instagram (screenshot from the live placement).

Your competitor books $5K jobs while Google sends you $300 trim requests (here's why)

Green-framed creative: a printed booklet mockup titled “The Backcut Weekly Intelligence Brief” standing on a white desk next to a small potted evergreen, arrow pointing at it. Caption: “Weekly breakdowns of what's actually working in tree service marketing.” Primary text: “What if those 'affordable' Angi leads are actually your most expensive...”

CTA: Sign up

02 · Verdict
69%weighted conversion likelihood across the panel (3.45/5), modeled
3/6archetypes at “likely convert”
Lindahighest receptivity (82%)
L1 no interest 8%L2 low 12%L3 moderate 22%L4 high 43%L5 convert 15%
03 · Receptivity by dimension
INTENT 3.6BEHAVIOR 3.6EMOTION 3.9TRUST 2.9VALUE 3.5URGENCY 3.3

Weighted across all six archetypes, scored 1 to 5 per dimension. The shape is the diagnosis: where the polygon collapses is where the creative loses this audience.

04 · Archetype scores
Linda4.09/5 · 82%
Marcus3.84/5 · 77%
Carlos3.73/5 · 75%
Doug3.66/5 · 73%
Jake3.61/5 · 72%
Ray1.57/5 · 31%
05 · What each archetype said
~73%Doug
Likely convert · score 3.66/5 · weight 25%

“That headline hits me right where it hurts: I literally got three $200 trim requests off Google last week while I know damn well the guy two towns over is landing full removals.”

Blocker: If the first email is generic fluff that could apply to a plumber or a roofer, he unsubscribes immediately; suspects a $500/mo package behind it.

Driver: Names a pain he is experiencing this week; free with no credit card keeps the risk at zero.

~77%Marcus
Likely convert · score 3.84/5 · weight 20%

“I literally just had this conversation with myself last week: running LSAs and getting $200-$400 trim requests while the guy down the road lands every big removal. And I've been debating turning Angi back on.”

Blocker: Fears repackaged digital-marketing advice with 'tree' swapped in for 'contractor'; gives it one or two issues.

Driver: Both the headline and the Angi hook land on live, current decisions he's weighing.

~82%Linda
Likely convert · score 4.09/5 · weight 15%

“We literally just had this conversation last week: little $200-$300 calls while the guy down the road lands full removals. If it's actually written for tree service owners, I'll read every word before I ever show my husband something with a price tag.”

Blocker: Watches for the $297/mo coaching-program funnel two emails in.

Driver: The Angi line validates her existing race-to-the-bottom suspicion; free means no budget conversation needed.

~31%Ray
Unlikely · score 1.57/5 · weight 15%

“The headline assumes I'm losing to some competitor who's out-hustling me online, which honestly just irritates me. I'm not losing to anybody; I'm choosing to stay small and profitable.”

Blocker: Reads the ad as manufacturing a problem he doesn't have in order to sell him something; the premise itself is the insult.

Driver: None identified: the panel's only active repulsion across all three ads.

~72%Jake
Likely convert · score 3.61/5 · weight 10%

“I've had that exact conversation with myself about why my Google leads skew toward trim work. But most industry newsletters recycle 'get more reviews, run LSAs'; show me municipal bid strategy or pricing frameworks past $500K and I'm in.”

Blocker: Subscription fatigue: 3-4 newsletters already; generic tips repackaged with tree puns lose him.

Driver: The pain mirror is accurate; the hook earned a tap on 'more.'

~75%Carlos
Likely convert · score 3.73/5 · weight 15%

“That's literally my life right now: grinding on $300 trim jobs while dudes with worse crews land the big removals. One email that feels like a sales pitch and I'm unsubscribing immediately.”

Blocker: Suspects a $2,000 course he can't afford behind the booklet; zero tolerance for pitch emails.

Driver: Free plus a headline that describes his week; wants the move-upmarket playbook.

06 · Reading

Sharpest blocker: The premise insults the archetype it doesn't fit: the referral-only veteran (15% of panel) reads 'your competitor books $5K jobs' as manufacturing a problem he doesn't have, and scores 31%, the only active repulsion in the whole test.

Strongest driver: The pain mirror: five of six archetypes volunteered the same lived sentence, small trim calls while the guy down the road lands removals.

Solid with everyone actively buying leads (72-82%) and actively repellent to the referral-only veteran: the angle self-selects the growth segment, which is fine if targeting can exclude the Ray profile and waste if it can't. The deeper fix is the trust gap it shares with its siblings: 'generic fluff that could apply to a plumber' is the stated unsubscribe trigger, so the first issue must prove it knows the difference between a trim lead and a crane-removal lead.

METHODOLOGY & LIMITS
This is the modeled layer end to end: synthetic archetypes (seeded from the passport's verified composition) reacting to sample creative. Scores are simulated receptivity, not predicted campaign performance, and are never quotable as measurement. The verified layer lives in the passport this report accompanies. A real sponsor engagement runs the sponsor's actual creative through this same instrument before placement.
Issued by audiencepassport.com · 2026-07-13 · pre-flight format v0.1 (sample) · passport format v0.3 draft

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