AUDIENCE PASSPORT · audiencepassport.com · Nº AP-26-0002

thebackcut.com

The Backcut · weekly newsletter for tree service operators (beehiiv, 1,848 subscribers)

TIER-2MEASURED
ID-GRAPH
2026-08-05
B2B newsletter
2026-07-05 → 2026-08-05 · day 32
2026-08-05
Passport v0.4 draft
01 · Audience scale
3,061devices observed on-site
3,322measured pageviews
245distinct people identified
575hashed emails (custom-audience ready)

Collection began 2026-07-05. Fifth issue, and the first to cover a full month: 3,061 devices and 245 identified people, up from 1,536 and 126 at day sixteen, 1,118 and 96 at day twelve. On 2026-07-18, tag delivery moved from direct GTM tags to the audiencepassport loader; the change is disclosed in the claims ledger. Figures accumulate as the instrument runs; nothing is projected.

02 · Identity resolution
22.0%of devices resolve to a real, named person via independent id-graph match
673resolved devices
2,388observed, unresolved (kept in denominator)
devices observed3,061
devices resolved673
distinct people245
hashed emails575

Resolution is deterministic cookie-to-identity matching against a 274M-person US identity graph. The unresolved remainder is reported, not discarded: the rate itself is part of the measurement.

03 · Humanness (tier 1)
74%of measured pageviews assess as human traffic
2,955pageviews in read window (2026-07-05 → 2026-08-05)
Human 74%Declared crawlers 6%Suspect automated 15%Not enough data 5%

On-page fingerprinting by FouAnalytics; dashboard read 2026-08-05. Automated read from the dashboard chart.json endpoint (labels no/noish=human 2196, yes/yesish=suspect 433, declared+search=171, not-enough-data=155; mapping validated vs 2026-07-13 manual dashboard read). Prior manual read 2026-07-13: 74.4% human on 924 pv. Declared crawlers are reported as a distinct signal, not dismissed as fraud: in the agentic era, AI agents visiting a property are a leading indicator of machine-mediated discovery, and this instrument counts them separately from suspect automation.

04 · Professional composition
low fill · disclosed68 of 245 identified site visitors carry employment-graph job data, and what fills is scattered day-job records, not the tree businesses themselves. This audience resolves as owner-operators and consumers: people whose businesses exist in county registries, not LinkedIn. The first-party list match below is where the professional shape becomes measurable; business-registry verification remains the designated tier-3 lane and appends to the ledger when it ships.
05 · Demographicsfill: 118 of 245 people

Age

55-6423%
45-5422%
35-4420%
65 and older18%
25-3413%
18-244%

Gender

F58%
M42%

Age spreads across four adjacent bands on-site — 55-64 (27 people), 45-54 (26), 35-44 (24), 65-and-older (21) — the older-skewing mass of earlier issues, now with more mid-career fill. Gender splits 132 F / 94 M on-site while the subscriber list runs 74% male; site traffic includes non-subscriber visitors and household devices, so the two read differently and both are reported.

06 · Household & wealthfill: 93 of 245 people

Household income

5%$200K to $250K
10%$100K to $150K
12%$75K to $100K
18%$60K to $75K
14%$45K to $60K
24%$20K to $45K
13%under $20K

Net worth

$750K to $1M14%
$500K to $750K3%
$375K to $500K11%
$150K to $250K17%
$100K to $150K10%
$75K to $100K5%
$50K to $75K3%
$25K to $50K4%
$2.5K to $25K11%
around zero16%
negative4%

Bands descend from highest at the top on both wings; each wing is percented on its own known base and scaled to its own longest bar. The shapes are the point: where the income mass sits against where the net-worth mass sits.

Small-cell floor n<5: 4 cells (10 people) suppressed, included in fill counts, never rendered.

92%homeowners, of 171 people with housing data
46%married, of 92 people with marital data

Income reads modest (modal band $20,000–$44,999) while net worth still shows both ends: near-zero is the second-largest band (27 people) and $750K–$1M third (23), with $150K–$250K now the modal band (28) as the sample grew. The owner-operator signature — small W-2 salaries, wealth held in homes and businesses — persists, less starkly than at day sixteen. 92% homeownership corroborates.

07 · Geographyfill: 221 of 245 people
AK · below small-cell floor (n<5)AL · below small-cell floor (n<5)AR · below small-cell floor (n<5)AZ · below small-cell floor (n<5)CA · 14 people · 6.3% of known-state baseCO · 8 people · 3.6% of known-state baseCT · below small-cell floor (n<5)DC · no identified people in windowDE · below small-cell floor (n<5)FL · 13 people · 5.9% of known-state baseGA · 5 people · 2.3% of known-state baseHI · no identified people in windowIA · below small-cell floor (n<5)ID · no identified people in windowIL · 10 people · 4.5% of known-state baseIN · 6 people · 2.7% of known-state baseKS · below small-cell floor (n<5)KY · below small-cell floor (n<5)LA · below small-cell floor (n<5)MA · 8 people · 3.6% of known-state baseMD · below small-cell floor (n<5)ME · below small-cell floor (n<5)MI · 10 people · 4.5% of known-state baseMN · below small-cell floor (n<5)MO · below small-cell floor (n<5)MS · below small-cell floor (n<5)MT · no identified people in windowNC · 8 people · 3.6% of known-state baseND · no identified people in windowNE · below small-cell floor (n<5)NH · below small-cell floor (n<5)NJ · 5 people · 2.3% of known-state baseNM · below small-cell floor (n<5)NV · below small-cell floor (n<5)NY · 16 people · 7.2% of known-state baseOH · 7 people · 3.2% of known-state baseOK · 6 people · 2.7% of known-state baseOR · below small-cell floor (n<5)PA · 11 people · 5.0% of known-state baseRI · no identified people in windowSC · below small-cell floor (n<5)SD · below small-cell floor (n<5)TN · below small-cell floor (n<5)TX · 8 people · 3.6% of known-state baseUT · below small-cell floor (n<5)VA · 6 people · 2.7% of known-state baseVT · no identified people in windowWA · 9 people · 4.1% of known-state baseWI · 8 people · 3.6% of known-state baseWV · below small-cell floor (n<5)WY · no identified people in windowCA6%CO4%FL6%GA2%IL5%IN3%MI5%NC4%NY7%OH3%OK3%PA5%TX4%VA3%WA4%WI4%
share of known-state basebelow floor n<5none identified

Leading states: NY 7%, CA 6%, FL 6%, PA 5%, MI 5%. Tint carries each state’s share of the known-state base; hover any state for its exact count and share. Hatched states hold 63 people across 25 cells, counted in fills, never rendered individually.

08 · Acquisition sources
86%of UTM-attributed devices arrive from Meta ads (1,959 of 2,277); 24% of them resolve
4%newsletter-click devices (86; opens don't touch the site, only clicks are measurable)
10%organic / direct / other (233 devices)

Source attribution reads UTMs and click IDs captured in the beacon itself, not platform-reported analytics. Shares can overlap slightly where a device arrives from more than one source.

09 · List composition (first-party list match)
1,848subscriptions on platform (1,755 active)
479resolve to verified people — 25.9% of the list, 26.1% of actives
Ownerthe single most common job title among the resolved
90%homeowners, of 313 matched people with housing data
One dot per subscription, all 1,848 of them. Each filled dot is one of the 479 identity-verified people; the rest are reported as unresolved, never projected.

One dot per subscription, all 1,848 of them. Each filled dot is one of the 479 identity-verified people; the rest are reported as unresolved, never projected.

Of 208 matched subscribers with seniority data, 98 are C-level; top titles read Owner (38), President (18), Business Owner, CEO, Arborist. 109 of 185 with company-size data run 1-to-25-person firms; Environmental Services is the top industry. 74% male, modal ages 35–64; Texas, Michigan, California, and Georgia lead. The list is matched as SHA-256 hashed emails against the identity graph and reported as aggregate statistics only: no person-level enrichment is returned to anyone, including the publisher. Composition is read from the resolved 26%; the remainder is reported, never projected.

10 · Declared vs. verified
Declared / claimedMeasuredVerdict
Weekly newsletter for tree service operators (declared subject)Owner is the top job title; 98 of 208 C-level; 59% at 1–25 employees; Environmental Services top industry (list match, 479 people)CONFIRMED
~800 subscribers (declared at first issue, 2026-07-06)1,848 subscriptions on platform; 479 identity-verified people (25.9%)REVISED
Audience built with Meta ads (declared acquisition)86% of UTM-attributed devices arrive from Meta placements; 24% of them resolve to peopleCONFIRMED
Raw traffic counts imply human readers (the industry default claim)74.3% of pageviews assess human; 5.8% declared crawlers; 14.7% suspect automation, reported unblendedREVISED

What the property says about itself, against what the instruments read. A revised claim is not a failure of the property; it is the difference between a description and a measurement, on the record.

11 · Issue-over-issue trend
IssueDevicesPeopleResolutionHuman shareSuspect share
first issue · day 2 (2026-07-06)1721879% (160 pv)11%
re-issue · day 9 (2026-07-13)9437623.3%74.4% (924 pv)18.4%
re-issue · day 12 (2026-07-16)1,1189624.0%74.8% (1,048 pv)17.7%
re-issue · day 16 (2026-07-20)1,53612622.8%75.8% (1,416 pv)16.0%
re-issue · day 32, full month (2026-08-05)3,06124522.0%74.3% (2,955 pv)14.7%

Same instruments, same property, successive issues of this document. Movement in the suspect share is reported, not smoothed: a rising bot share with scale is what honest measurement of paid traffic looks like.

12 · Persona models (modeled layer)

~ modeledThese are not measured people. They are synthetic buyer archetypes, modeled from the property's declared audience definition, weights re-fit to day-12 measured composition (n=96 site people: modal age 65+, 52% female, 94% homeowners, barbell net worth; plus the first-party list match). One deliberate mismatch archetype is included to quantify targeting waste, not to be sold to, for use in creative and offer planning. Weights are estimates of segment share, never quotable as measurement.

~22%Doug
Two-truck grinding veteran · upstate NY · 52

Wants: Book more removals and stump jobs without paying a marketing company that doesn't get his business.

Held back by: Burned by a $500/mo SEO vendor; assumes marketing pitches are scams until proven otherwise.

Stance: Solution-aware; answers every call himself from the cab of his F-350.

~15%Marcus
Growth-hungry two-crew owner · DFW · 34

Wants: Systematized lead flow so he can step off the saw and run the business.

Held back by: Two payrolls to cover; anything new must show ROI in weeks.

Stance: Product-aware; runs his own LSAs, wants tree-specific proof, not hype.

~18%Linda
Office-and-field partner · central NC · 48

Wants: Practical, low-cost tactics she can run herself to restart flat revenue.

Held back by: Distrusts subscriptions she can't pause in winter; a Groupon deal once brought the wrong customers.

Stance: Problem-aware; she reads the newsletter and decides what her husband sees.

~18%Ray
Semi-retired legacy operator · southern Maine · 68

Wants: Reads to validate that his way of doing business still works; would take a few more high-margin removals.

Held back by: Never spent a dollar on advertising; new tech reads as designed to exploit tradespeople.

Stance: Unaware; has never clicked a CTA in an email.

~8%Jake
Scaling 12-person operator · Milwaukee · 41

Wants: Grow $400K to $750K in two years; professionalize the pipeline for municipal bids.

Held back by: Time. Anything adopted must save hours, not cost them.

Stance: Most-aware power reader; CRM, agency ads, 120+ reviews already in place.

~12%Carlos
Hustle-phase new owner · Baton Rouge · 29

Wants: Legitimize the business past side-job status and hire a first employee.

Held back by: Cash is truck-payment tight; spend must pay back within weeks.

Stance: Problem-aware; skims on his phone between jobs, suspicious of anything that costs money.

~7%Pat
MISMATCH · retired homeowner, no tree business · Sarasota FL · 66

Wants: Subscribed out of property-owner curiosity (a removal quote scared her); reads for the stories.

Held back by: Has no business; every operator-facing offer is irrelevant by definition.

Stance: Function: quantifies the waste segment. Roughly this share of the measured audience carries no employment signal and consumer-only attributes; a sponsor buying operators should know this slice exists.

Heaviest-archetype rule: Doug (22%) is also the most pitch-averse; for this panel the win condition on the heaviest segment is not losing it. This matched the live creative test, where funnel suspicion was the universal blocker.

This panel is executable. The publisher can offer sponsors a pre-flight test of their creative or offer against these archetypes as part of the sponsorship package, producing per-archetype receptivity scores before budget is committed. The passport certifies what the panel was modeled from; the test is its own report. Sample pre-flight test against this panel →

13 · Field confidence
FieldKnown-value baseFillConfidence
Gender226 of 24592%high confidence
State / geography221 of 24590%high confidence
Age band118 of 24548%directional
Homeownership171 of 24570%directional
Net worth169 of 24569%directional
Marital status92 of 24538%sparse
Household income93 of 24538%sparse
Children in household126 of 24551%directional
Job title47 of 24519%sparse
Seniority68 of 24528%sparse
Company size57 of 24523%sparse
Industry39 of 24516%sparse

Every percentage in this passport is computed on its field’s known-value base (nulls excluded), never imputed. high confidence ≥70% fill, quotable; directional 40–70%; sparse <40%, indicative only. Small-cell floor: distribution cells under n=5 are suppressed from render (the floor rises as fills grow).

14 · Claims ledger
ClaimSourceMethodBasis
✓ verified3,061 US devices observed; 3,322 pageviews measured (day 32)on-page beaconfirst-party pageview beaconfull window
✓ verified22.0% of devices resolve to an identified personidentity graphdeterministic cookie→identity3,061 devices
✓ verified245 distinct people; 575 uploadable email hashesidentity graphHEM extractionresolved set
✓ verifiedTag delivery moved from direct GTM tags to the audiencepassport loader on 2026-07-18; daily row volume and humanness held within prior varianceinstrument changeGTM-verified migration + 48h variance window2026-07-18 → 07-20
✓ verifiedPaid-social traffic quality: 24% of Meta-ad devices resolve to real peoplebeacon + UTMsource-segmented resolution1,959 ad devices
✓ verifiedFirst cumulative intent read (five archived weekly windows, 2026-07-21 → 08-03): 75 topics clear the n=5 floor; none over-index vs population, so the intent panel stays out rather than shipping noiseintent archivemember-level union across windows, per-week lift vs same-week baseline5 weekly windows
✓ verifiedFirst-party list: 479 of 1,848 subscribers resolve to verified people (25.9%)identity graphSHA-256 HEM match, aggregate output only1,848 subscriptions
✓ verifiedList composition is owner-heavy and propertied: top title Owner, 90% homeownersid-graph attributesperson-graph join on the matched set221 / 313 people
✓ verifiedOwner-operator wealth signature: modest income bands, net worth filled at both ends, 92% homeowners on-siteid-graph attributesconsumer-graph join93 / 169 / 171 people
~ modeledAudience decomposes into 7 buyer archetypes; weights are estimatesSimPanelsynthetic panel; seed disclosed in the persona panelmodeled
✓ verified74% of measured traffic assesses as humanFouAnalyticson-page fingerprinting, dashboard read 2026-08-052,955 pageviews

✓ verified read directly from the instrument, quotable as-is. ~ modeled estimated from distributions, flagged wherever it appears, never quotable as exact. ∅ not measured the instrument is absent or has not read yet; the row stays so the gap is on the record. Every number traces to a source, a method, and a basis count; the schema is vendor-neutral, so additional measurement layers append as new ledger rows.

METHODOLOGY & LIMITS
Tier-2 identity resolution covers US traffic only; non-US devices remain in the unresolved denominator. All composition data is delivered as aggregate statistics; no personally identifiable information leaves the measurement layer. Attribute fill varies by audience class and is disclosed per panel. Panels with low fill are labeled, never extrapolated. The subscriber list is matched as hashed emails; raw addresses never enter the matching path. As collection accumulates, this passport re-issues with the same document number and a new issue date.
NOT IN THIS PASSPORT (v0.4): business-registry verification (tier 3, designated lane for this audience class) · credit score, home value, education, residence tenure (present in consented-lane datasets such as LiveIntent; absent from this graph) · intent-topic read (the archive now clears the small-cell floor — first cumulative read 2026-08-05 found 75 topics with five or more members across five weekly windows — but no topic over-indexes against population yet, so the panel ships when it says something, stated rather than stretched). Each appears as a new panel or ledger row in a future issue; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Issued by audiencepassport.com · 2026-08-05 · format v0.4 draft

Methodology · For buyers · Audience audit · Privacy · Terms · [email protected]